Since its peak in 2010, undergraduate enrollment has dropped by 11.6%, and projections suggest the decline will continue. This isn’t just a short-term dip—it reflects deeper changes in how students and families view college.

Several factors are driving this shift:

• The birth rate decline: Fewer students are graduating from high school, meaning fewer potential college applicants.
• Rising skepticism about the value of a degree: Tuition has increased 1,200% since 1980, while the average starting salary for graduates (adjusted for inflation) has only grown 49%. That math doesn’t add up for many students.
• Alternative pathways: More students are opting for trade schools, apprenticeships, or directly entering the workforce instead of taking on massive student loan debt.

For decades, around 60% of high school graduates have enrolled in college, but with these pressures, that number may start falling. The real question is: What’s fueling this tuition bubble, and how much longer can it last?

The Biggest Problem:

The Cost is Nuts

Just like any business, colleges need to bring in more money than they spend. But over the past 40 years, the number of administrators has skyrocketed—growing 221% and far outpacing faculty. Today, universities spend more on non-teaching staff than on actual instruction, often adding bureaucracy without improving student outcomes. To cover these rising costs—along with maintenance, technology, and other operational expenses—colleges keep raising tuition. But if the student experience doesn’t improve alongside these price hikes, fewer students enroll, creating a downward spiral.

Rising costs lead to higher tuition, which drives students away, leading to lower enrollment and less revenue. Reduced state funding and limited financial aid only make things worse. Schools end up borrowing, dipping into endowments, or cutting programs, faculty, and student services—further reducing the quality of education. Without real change, many colleges may struggle to survive long-term.

We’re already seeing this unfold. Since launching Vivaday in Wisconsin, we’ve had a front-row seat. Just last year, UW Oshkosh announced major department closures, layoffs, and retirement incentives to manage a $20 million deficit. Some of our high school partners told us about underclassmen and incoming students who might have to transfer or change majors because their programs got cut.

And this isn’t just a one-time event—it’s a pattern. If budget cuts keep accelerating, schools across the country will shrink, leaving students with fewer choices, fewer resources, and a college experience that feels less and less worth the cost. What happens then? Fewer students apply, enrollment drops, and the cycle continues—until some schools simply can’t keep their doors open.

Now that we got that out of the way, I believe it’s not all negative. What does the glass half full perspective look like?

The Future of College

Glass half full

Despite growing skepticism, college remains the default path for many students. High schools continue to push four-year degrees, and parents—especially in middle- and upper-class families—still expect their kids to attend. Even as enrollment declines, most students who delay college end up enrolling within a few years.

One reason? The wage premium for degree holders is still significant. Bachelor’s degree graduates earn a median of $1,432 per week compared to $853 for those with only a high school diploma. Over a lifetime, that difference adds up to roughly $1 million. While some degrees have poor ROI, high-demand fields like STEM, business, and healthcare still make college a worthwhile investment.

Government intervention could also play a role in reversing the decline. Policies like loan forgiveness, free community college, and expanded Pell Grants could make higher education more attractive. Historically, college enrollment has increased during economic downturns, suggesting that if job markets tighten, more people may return to school.

Meanwhile, universities are being forced to adapt. Many are experimenting with lower tuition, flexible degree options, and partnerships with major employers to make college more accessible. Online and competency-based programs—like those at Western Governors University—are growing rapidly, proving that demand for education isn’t disappearing; it’s evolving.

However, without a doubt, the next decade will see smaller institutions closing their doors or merging with larger colleges. Elite universities like Harvard, with its $50 billion endowment, will continue operating with little adjustment, benefiting from closures as competition dwindles. But for the majority of institutions, it will come down to a stark choice: cut costs or shut down. Schools that fail to adapt—whether by restructuring programs, reducing administrative expenses, or offering more affordable education models—will struggle to survive.

That said, alternative paths like skilled trades and apprenticeships aren’t a universal solution. Many high-paying careers still require degrees, and not all students want to pursue trade jobs. While the number of students choosing alternatives will grow, it won’t replace the traditional college route entirely.

So what’s the most likely outcome? College enrollment probably won’t rebound to 2010 levels (~70%), but it’s also unlikely to collapse below 50%. Instead, expect it to stabilize in the mid-50% to 60% range as universities adjust, government policies shift, and the long-term wage premium keeps degrees relevant.

The Value of Talking to Current Students

Welcome to Vivaday.org

Finding transparent, reliable information about the college experience can be tough. Colleges are focused on bringing in as many students as possible each year, but that often leaves prospective students and their families without real insights into what campus life is actually like. This gap in information is a big reason why 82% of students end up changing their major after declaring, and why 1.3 million students transfer every year.

A good way to understand this is through an analogy. Think back to how booking travel used to be. For a long time, it was a hassle. Travelers had to rely on agents or spend hours calling airlines, hotels, and car rental companies. There was no easy way to compare options, check prices, or read reviews. Then, in 1996, Expedia revolutionized the process by giving people the tools to search, compare, and book trips themselves. It gave travelers control, transparency, and the power of real feedback from others.

The college search is a lot like that old travel experience—opaque, frustrating, and filled with marketing materials that lack authenticity. Without access to real, up-to-date insights, students and parents are left in the dark. This lack of transparency is why so many students change majors or transfer schools. They simply didn’t have enough real-world information to make the right decision from the start.

At Vivaday, our mission is to bring the same kind of transparency and freedom of exploration to the college search that Expedia brought to travel. We’ve created a platform with no middleman and no school-filtered answers—just real, personal insights that make the college decision process clearer, more informed, and more empowering.

As the college system continues to evolve, a resource like this will become more essential to cut through the noise and get to the information that truly matters to students. And the best part? What that information is, is up to you. You have the freedom to easily find exactly what you need. Especially as we grow.

See you next week!